The Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks clashed on Wednesday, January 22, 2025, at the American Airlines Center in a high-stakes Western Conference matchup that felt more like a playoff preview than a mid-January game. Minnesota entered as 3-point favorites — a line that had climbed from an opening of just 1.5 points — despite being without shooting guard Donte DiVincenzo, whose toe sprain had sidelined him indefinitely. The twist? The Mavericks’ injury report kept growing, and with Luka Doncic out due to a calf strain, the betting market shifted dramatically. By tip-off, the total points line had dropped from 218.5 to 215.0, and the moneyline favored Minnesota at -125. This wasn’t just a game. It was a test of depth, resilience, and how quickly teams adapt when their stars fall.
How Injuries Rewrote the Script
When the line opened at -1.5 on Tuesday evening, few expected it to balloon to -3.0 by Wednesday morning. But as the Dallas Mavericks injury report expanded — with Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and two rotation players sidelined — oddsmakers reacted. The team’s recent form told the story: 3 wins and 7 losses in their last 10 games, averaging just 112.6 points per game while surrendering 116.6. Worse, they’d gone 3-10 against the spread since Doncic’s calf strain. That’s not bad luck. That’s a team losing its offensive engine and struggling to compensate.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offense had been humming. In their last 10 games, the Minnesota Timberwolves averaged 122.7 points, shot 50.9% from the field, and hit 79.9% from the free-throw line — all top-5 marks in the NBA. Their defense? Solid. Opponents averaged just 115.4 points. But DiVincenzo’s absence was a real hole. Since January 6, when he started his streak of 4-2 records, Minnesota had gone 1-2 without him. He was averaging 9.5 three-point attempts per game at 42.1%. Without him, the offense became predictable.
The Last Game Before the Game
Minnesota came in reeling. Just four days earlier, they’d lost 123-112 to the Denver Nuggets, ending a five-game winning streak that included back-to-back wins over the Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings. Center Naz Reid didn’t mince words after the loss: "Maybe we didn’t move the ball enough. We had like, 30-something assists the last two nights. Maybe that’s what it was... I think it was self-inflicted." His point? The Timberwolves had become too reliant on isolation plays, and their 23 assists in that game — down from 30+ in prior wins — told the tale.
Dallas, on the other hand, had just survived a 138-133 overtime thriller against the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday night. Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington each dropped 21 points, and Daniel Gafford chipped in 20 on 6-of-8 shooting. But that game was exhausting — the kind that leaves legs heavy and minds foggy. The Mavericks were playing on two days’ rest, and their bench depth was already stretched thin. The fact they even won that game felt like a miracle.
Historical Rivalry, Recent Momentum
Here’s the odd part: the last time these teams met — exactly one year earlier on January 22, 2024 — Minnesota edged Dallas 115-114 in a nail-biter in Dallas. That was the second of three wins Minnesota had over Dallas in the 2024-25 season. The lone Dallas win came at Target Center on October 29, 2024, by a 120-114 margin. So history wasn’t just on Minnesota’s side — it was practically whispering in their ear.
Home court? Not much of a factor this season. The Timberwolves were 3-3 at home. The Mavericks? Just 1-2 on the road. So even though this game was in Dallas, the edge didn’t feel like it belonged to the home team.
The Betting Angle: Naz Reid’s Three-Point Surge
With DiVincenzo out, Minnesota’s perimeter offense needed a spark. Enter Naz Reid. The center, known more for his post moves and hustle than his shooting, had been quietly heating up from deep. In the last three games without DiVincenzo, he’d hit 8 of his 15 three-point attempts — a 53.3% clip. His season average? Just 1.1 threes per game. But the sample size was small, and the opportunity was huge.
Covers.com’s betting analyst flagged the Naz Reid Over 2.5 three-pointers (+125 at bet365) as the sharpest play of the night. Why? Because Minnesota had to stretch the floor. Without DiVincenzo, they couldn’t afford to let Dallas collapse on Anthony Edwards or Karl-Anthony Towns. That meant Reid, who had started hitting threes in crunch time, would get more open looks. And with Dallas’ defense scrambling to cover Doncic’s absence, the paint was clogged — leaving the corners wide open.
What’s Next for Both Teams?
If Minnesota wins, they’ll climb into the top 6 in the West — a position that could mean home-court advantage in the first round. But if they lose? Questions will swirl about their ability to win without DiVincenzo, and whether their offense is too reliant on Edwards’ iso-ball.
For Dallas, this game was a lifeline. A win would stop the bleeding — a 3-7 record in their last 10. A loss? It could push them toward the 8-seed, setting up a brutal first-round matchup with the top seed. Doncic’s return timeline remains unclear. Without him, their ceiling is low. With him? They’re a title contender. Right now, they’re stuck in the middle.
The Bigger Picture
This game wasn’t just about two teams fighting for playoff positioning. It was a case study in how injuries reshape narratives. One team lost a key shooter and still got the favorite tag. The other lost its superstar — and the betting world flipped on them. It’s a reminder that in the NBA, talent matters, but health matters more. And sometimes, the most valuable player isn’t the one with the highest salary — it’s the one who shows up when others don’t.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Donte DiVincenzo’s absence impact Minnesota’s offense?
DiVincenzo’s injury removed Minnesota’s most reliable catch-and-shoot threat, cutting their three-point volume by nearly 10 attempts per game. Since his absence, the Timberwolves’ offensive rating dropped 7.2 points, and their assist-to-turnover ratio fell from 1.8 to 1.3 — a sign their ball movement suffered. Naz Reid and Anthony Edwards had to shoulder more scoring load, which made their offense more predictable.
Why did the betting line shift so dramatically from -1.5 to -3.0?
The line moved because Dallas’ injury report ballooned beyond just Luka Doncic. By Wednesday morning, reports confirmed two key reserves — Dereck Lively II and Cam Christie — were also out. That left Dallas with just eight healthy rotation players. Oddsmakers reacted to the loss of depth, especially in a back-to-back situation. Minnesota’s defense, meanwhile, had held opponents under 115 points in 7 of their last 10 games — making them a safer bet despite missing DiVincenzo.
What’s the significance of Naz Reid’s three-point shooting in this matchup?
Reid had hit 8 of his last 15 threes in the past three games without DiVincenzo — a 53.3% clip that’s unsustainable long-term but explosive in short bursts. With Dallas’ defense focused on Edwards and Towns, Reid found open space in the corners. His ability to stretch the floor forced Dallas’ big men to guard him outside, creating driving lanes for Minnesota’s guards. That’s why the Over 2.5 threes at +125 was the sharpest prop bet.
How did Luka Doncic’s absence affect Dallas’ defensive performance?
Doncic’s absence didn’t just hurt Dallas’ offense — it hurt their defense too. He’s one of the league’s best perimeter defenders on switches, and without him, the Mavericks struggled to guard pick-and-rolls. Opponents averaged 12.4 more points per 100 possessions in the last 10 games without him. Minnesota’s 27.9 assists per game in their last 10 contests exploited that weakness, especially when Dallas rotated late on ball movement.
What’s the historical edge between these two teams this season?
Minnesota won two of three matchups against Dallas in the 2024-25 season, including a 115-114 win in Dallas on January 22, 2024 — the exact same date as this game. The Timberwolves also won 118-112 in Dallas on December 25, 2024. Dallas’ only win came at home on October 29, 2024. That 2-1 edge, combined with Minnesota’s recent defensive improvements, made them the more consistent team in the series.
Could this game affect playoff seeding in the Western Conference?
Absolutely. Both teams were tied for 7th place in the West entering the game. A Timberwolves win would push them into the top 6, giving them home-court advantage in the first round. A Mavericks win would keep them alive in the 8-seed race, but with Doncic out, their chances of winning a series would plummet. This wasn’t just a game — it was a playoff seeding referendum.
